# Prepping / Emergency Preparedness > General Emergency Preparedness >  Pandemic Survival

## Chris

I'm wanting to build some content for the site covering pandemic survival, really just a compendium of reference information on infectious or possibly items used in bioterrorism, or just new emerging viruses that are becoming more common or spreading to the US or other developed nations for the first time. Quite frankly, from my own personal perspective. I don't think we're going to have another civil war, I don't think there will be a nuclear winter, I don't think aliens will attack, or zombies, or economic meltdown destroying society as we know it. But the odds of there being a major pandemic in my lifetime seem pretty good. 

I'm looking for help brainstorming on what it should cover. 

ebola
SARS
MERS
small pox
anthrax
ricin
swine flu
bird flu
west nile virus
spanish flu
other influenzas
Chikungunya
marburg
hantavirus
lassa
rabies
dengue fever
bubonic plaque

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## canid

If you want my two bits I think it should be fundamentally divided by categores or classes of transmission vectors with a section on general hygiene protocols and more specific prophylactic measures for each category along with references to the diseases which fall into them.

It could be laid out in a very organized manner that way without having to dedicate huge space to each disease to be considered.

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## Tokwan

Hygiene, a perimeter to distance the threat (fencing etc)...a clean room facility like in one of the rooms in your house if the outbreak gets too serious (in vicinity of the house or shelter)..The shelter or your refuge should have the capacity to house several fire places...boil abundance of water. Ready certain medications that help boost your antibody. 
Sterilize all tools and also stock disinfectants.
And lastly, pray! Diseases are the silent enemy and you cannot shoot them.

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## Sarge47

Are you thinking about the possibility of natural disasters like Hurricanes, flooding, train derailments with toxic spills...?.... :Detective:

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## Tokwan

Its Pandemic!

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## BENESSE

> If you want my two bits I thinkit should be fundamentally divided by categores or classes of transmission vectors with a section on general hygiene protocols and more specific prophylactic measures for each category along with references to the diseases which fall into them.
> 
> It could be laid out in a very organized manner that way without having to dedicate huge space to each disease to be considered.


Couldn't agree more; that's the approach I would take in organizing it (a grid system?), and at the very least, putting down some cliff notes to be expanded as new info becomes available.

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## Rick

That's a very good list. However, there are several other diseases that can cause pandemic. They include: 

Cholera
Typhus
Yellow Fever
Viral Hemorrhagic Fever
Typhoid 
Measles (yes, it kills it large numbers)
Tuberculosis
Malaria 
Yellow Fever
Mad Cow Disease

Here is a link that divides the diseases into Categories by their severity as Canid suggested. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioterrorism

Some diseases could be used as bioterrorism while others are more naturally occurring but still pose a viable threat on a global scale. I think a section for pandemic would be great. Pandemics are a real threat and one more reason to prepare.

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## canid

I see a couple examples for transmission category as such:

intimate and caregiver contact (e.g. viral hepatitis, Ebolavirus, cholera, diphtheria, etc)casual social contact (influenza, etc)casual exposure to fluid residue persisting on surfaces (influenza, tuberculosis, polioviruses, etc.)aerosolized fluids (influenza, diphtheria, etc)contamination of food and watersources (cholera, polioviruses, viral hepatitis, etc),
where the major sections could be descriptions these transmission categories, each listing the diseases to which they apply even if they occur in multiple categories, and include precautions, remediation methods.

And then perhaps description of or references to external info on the various diseases.

This would allow for treating the prophylactic and avoidance from the generic towards the specific and avoid the need for redundant information.

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## Wildthang

My plan is to stay to heck away from everybody as much as possible, and wear as much protection as possible before contact with anybody outside the people In my direct family that lives in my house. So anybody beside myself and the girls needs to leave the property!
I know that isn't as easy as it sounds, but is probably the safest plan. Am I making this too simple?

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## canid

In one respect in particular: yes, you are oversimplifying. Your stated position presupposes that your direct family are not a threat vector. This may or may not be true, depending on their willingness and ability to avoid exposure themselves. Can all of you remain in long term isolation for the duration of any such epidemic? If you apply the appropriate principles of prophylaxis, such complete isolation would not be an absolute necessity in the first place, and as such needn't limit your capabilities and opportunities absolutely.

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## Rick

Assuming the disease is not air borne or borne by some insect or rodent then you have to consider how long the infectious agent can remain viable outside the host. Simply picking up your mail out of the mailbox could be a potential source of the right disease if someone infected handled it. Lot's to consider but it all focuses on which disease, how it's transmitted and how long it can survive in the environment.

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## hunter63

I'm all for information on problems like this.
History tell us that this may be the biggest all around threat....that isn't just a local occurrence.

Good thought about getting your mail, Rick....that was my first thought as well.....

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## Rick

You also have to consider that those in the affected areas just might not show up for work for fear of contracting the "whatever" illness. That includes, utilities, grocery chain, medical, military, etc. The first thing I thought of when I heard we are sending 3000 troops to Liberia was what must those folks be thinking? I certainly would not want to be in one of those units being sent there. 

I can go to work today, make (fill in an amount) and contract "whatever" or I can stay home and defend my family. Not much to think about in that scenario. At least for me.

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## canid

I hope they are thinking they can ship over there, establish the new field hospitals, evaluate triage, treatment and quarantine capabilities and training and come back home with minimal exposure, and moreover, I hope they're right.

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## BENESSE

> *My plan is to stay to heck away from everybody as much as possible, and wear as much protection as possible before contact with anybody outside the people In my direct family that lives in my house.* So anybody beside myself and the girls needs to leave the property!
> I know that isn't as easy as it sounds, but is probably the safest plan. Am I making this too simple?


Starting when?
By the time it hits the news and you find out about it, you might have already been affected. Some diseases have a long incubation period.

Being where I am, I know there is only so much I can _reasonably_ do; the rest is beyond my control.

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## crashdive123

I think it's a great idea to have a section like this.  Breaking it up into groups as Canid suggested is a good idea.  Discussing prevention strategies could be very beneficial.  We'd have to be careful with the information posted and avoid the fantasy or B movie stuff.

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## canid

Wait; hold the train... Are you saying no zombie/rage virus section? Not even to bring a bit of levity?

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## Walter2

Yes please! This is a great idea.

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## BENESSE

Here's some very useful info from WHO & CDC-- a manual for health workers in Africa. 
There is even a section (annex V/pg.149) on how to make protective clothing.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/abroad/pdf/af...etting-vhf.pdf

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## Chris

> If you want my two bits I think it should be fundamentally divided by categores or classes of transmission vectors with a section on general hygiene protocols and more specific prophylactic measures for each category along with references to the diseases which fall into them.
> 
> It could be laid out in a very organized manner that way without having to dedicate huge space to each disease to be considered.


I have to think of things in terms of what people are likely to search for on Google that would bring them here. Very few will search for "prevention for fluid transmitted infection" but lots of people will search for "prevent ebola infection" The goal is to provide information, but the goal is also to build website traffic. 

But lots of good ideas otherwise everyone, keep them coming.

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## Chris

Contagion was a pretty good movie showing what I think society would look like in the event of something like this. Yes, you ideally will need food stored, you won't go to work/school/mail/etc. Everyone will be hibernating, you may even be forced to in the form of an all hours curfew.

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## Rick

Let's not forget that it doesn't have to be a pandemic. It could be an epidemic that we are faced with. Ebola is a good example of an epidemic. It probably doesn't matter to those that are facing it what it's called but any of the diseases mentioned in this thread could be a localized or regional event as opposed to something on a global scale.

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## Chris

Oh for sure, it is probably more likely to be regional anyways.

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## canid

> I have to think of things in terms of what people are likely to search for on Google that would bring them here. Very few will search for "prevention for fluid transmitted infection" but lots of people will search for "prevent ebola infection" The goal is to provide information, but the goal is also to build website traffic. 
> 
> But lots of good ideas otherwise everyone, keep them coming.


SEO. It doesn't have to be purely driven by visible content.

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## Rick

Here's a link to a map that has been posted a time or two. Don't know if it's worthy of including it but it does have a lot of useful information. If you click on an event and then on More Information then on Description or Situation Update in the top menu there are really good write ups on the biological stuff. Right now, Enterovirus D-68 is the big one in the U.S. 

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

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## nell67

> Assuming the disease is not air borne or borne by some insect or rodent then you have to consider how long the infectious agent can remain viable outside the host. Simply picking up your mail out of the mailbox could be a potential source of the right disease if someone infected handled it. Lot's to consider but it all focuses on which disease, how it's transmitted and how long it can survive in the environment.


Exactly Rick, think about all the "stuff" you have in your pantry/house wherever that  you bought at the big box store that has been handled by how many people?? Not just producers/shippers/employees, but what about the shoppers who walk the isles picking up products handles them, cough on them, swipe their nose with their hand while or just before handling products, then put them back on the shelf and now you have that/those items in your house. Some of the viruses/bacteria can live quite a long time outside the body.

 The more a product has been handled before you get it, the greater the chance you will come in contact with something (bad) RIght now it's is ebola and enterovirus D68 , oh and doctors in  Africa have begun selling blood/blood products from ebola patients on the black market, scary stuff.

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## Rick

While we are on the subject of Enterovirus D-68 I just read that alcohol based hand sanitizers are NOT effective against it. Here are the recommended precautions to take. 


Clean: Wash your hands frequently with warm soap and water for at least 20 seconds.Alcohol-based hand sanitizer is not effective in preventing the spread of EV-D68.Cover: Cover your cough with your sleeve or a tissue when you cough or sneeze.Contain: Prevent spreading illness to others by staying home if you are sick.Avoid close contact and sharing cups or eating utensils with those who are ill.Disinfect frequently touched surfaces.

http://wishtv.com/2014/09/12/health-...68-in-indiana/

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## Rick

Another good map that let's you select specific threats such as disease. You can further refine your search by using the search fields at the bottom of the map. Interesting how many countries world wide are now reporting cases of ebola. 

http://outbreaks.globalincidentmap.com/home.php

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## Rick

And yet one more that offers new feeds. If you click on the number of a disease in the right hand box it will display headlines for that illness and map it to the news reporting agency. 

http://www.healthmap.org/en/

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## LowKey

Sierra Leone Lockdown.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EBOLA?SITE=SCAND

Would you let a government worker into your house? Would you have a choice?

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## hayshaker

i thought this was,nt a tinfoilhat woowoo site 
oh my time to break out the 15yrold singlemalt scotch it,s all over now.

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## hunter63

It isn't....no tinfoil hat needed....and frankly this crap scares the crap outta me.......

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## Rick

Disease is one of the most common threats to man. We see epidemics occur each year. Right now, the US is impacted by EV-D68 and people are dying from it. Pandemics have resulted in horrendous loss of life. Currently, HIV/AIDS is killing 1-2 million per year and it is estimated that 35 million have the disease. Those certainly aren't tin foil numbers. 

I would suggest that your chances of protecting your home and family against those who might have some infection are FAR greater than most of the end of the world stuff that folks are running to the woods over. Everyone wants to grab their bag and practice living in the woods because of some hypothetical economic collapse but how many have resources and practice to isolate and protect from disease? Epidemics strain companys' resources every year. Imagine those who work at power plants not showing up simply because of some virulent variant of flu. It takes people to keep the lights on and the water running.

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## hunter63

Well said.........Not a glamour's as Zombies, not as noisy as a asteroid, your stuff still works for awhile..... but keeps coming.

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## crashdive123

Spot on Rick.  Had to give you some rep for that reality based assessment.

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## hayshaker

it scares me somewhat too HUNTER i was only trying to make light of it .as for 
bieing prepared for that i could hole up now and not need a thing. all good here.
have coffee will survive.

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## Rick

I'm reminded of War of the Worlds (the original) in which the Martian's defeated everything we had and were brought down by a simple cold virus. We are oh so close to the same reality. A percentage of my preps are for this very thing including gloves, masks, clothing, a general selection of meds and all the other things all of us stock up on. Epidemics/Pandemics have a stronger history with man that just about any other threat and rank right up there with fire and weather for numbers killed. This includes the possibility of weaponized diseases. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risks

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

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## hunter63

> it scares me somewhat too HUNTER i was only trying to make light of it .as for 
> bieing prepared for that i could hole up now and not need a thing. all good here.
> have coffee will survive.


Yeah gottacha.........No worries......

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## crashdive123

> I'm reminded of War of the Worlds (the original) in which the Martian's defeated everything we had and were brought down by a simple cold virus. We are oh so close to the same reality. A percentage of my preps are for this very thing including gloves, masks, clothing, a general selection of meds and all the other things all of us stock up on. Epidemics/Pandemics have a stronger history with man that just about any other threat and rank right up there with fire and weather for numbers killed. This includes the possibility of weaponized diseases. 
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risks
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic


I remember my Mom telling me how terrified she was listening to that radio broadcast.  She didn't catch the "disclaimer" at the beginning and thought is was real, as did many others.

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## canid

Millions of Africans are currently living under the very real need for such a guide as this, from the wide varieties of epidemic diseases currently and frequently making their rounds' through nations with poor infrastructure and often poor education. The current two Ebolavirus epidemics have the potential to be resolved - even merely by understanding and widespread public practice of self protection protocols - or to topple governments and badly chill already struggling economies. They are relatively mild as far as infectious disease epidemics go and are already outpacing the medical infrastructures of a couple of those countries. Public understanding is the far greater resource.

I've been confident that if the virus came to the US eventually we would be even better suited than the nations already coping with it to prevent a major public health crisis, but now its first uncontrolled case has made it to Texas where many of my family live and understanding and confidence help but don't calm all the nerves no matter how well founded. Fear can be the biggest impact; one new case in an entire country and it's already got this 'keep it in perspective' and 'understand the problem' guy nervous despite knowing pretty well better.

This is surely not a purely academic exercise.

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## LowKey

It's here. Now. 1 in the hospital and 18 under observation including 5 school age children. In Texas? I would have expected it first in NY, Boston or LA.

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## kyratshooter

They are now reporting a second confirmed case associated with the first.  

There is a 10,000 strong Nigerian community in Dallas and their airport is an international hub.  That is a "perfect storm" situation.

That a person just returning from Nigeria (he informed them of that) was treated for flu like symptoms and returned home is criminal negligence on the part of the ER doctor.

I will bet that the entire hospital staff is in lynch mob mode!

Especially the lab!!!

They would have isolated his specimens, used hazmat suits and had specific protocols for biohazard disposal if warned.  Now everyone from the phlebotomy staff, the  candy striper that carried the specimens to the lab, all the techs, and the janitorial staff have to consider themselves EXPOSED.

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## crashdive123

Epidemiology 101......

Do not allow travel from areas where there is an outbreak like ebola.  Too bad we have community organizers running things, whose advisers are afraid to offer a contrary view to that of the king.

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## canid

> They are now reporting a second confirmed case associated with the first.  
> That a person just returning from Nigeria (he informed them of that) was treated for flu like symptoms and returned home is criminal negligence on the part of the ER doctor.


That is a terrible shame, to be sure.




> I will bet that the entire hospital staff is in lynch mob mode!


This I doubt. I have no doubt that there will be some amount of this understandable sentiment, but I'm willing to bet that much of the staff and even a flock of medical professionals form outside  will line up for the chance to get first hand experience with a novel tropical infectious disease which has never (aside from a non-human-pathogenic strain seen only in a primate research facility) been seen outside of it's home continent before this outbreak, with full consideration for the importance and duty of making sure things return to that prior norm.

I am always willing to consider that I may be wrong, but this is not the first time in this very outbreak that 'not here' has slowed the response. It happened in Nigeria, and that is the first country involved which has seemed by medical protocols to have stopped it's outbreak. We are far better suited to handle this even than they and of course my prayers are with all those currently concerned.

Sorry for the rant.

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## kyratshooter

Nope Canid, most hospital staff is present to help, and readily do so using the proper precautions, but do not feel compelled to have some one else needlessly sacrifice their lives.  

My wife was a long term Medical professional and these kinds of things make them fighting mad!

By not being properly warned they came in direct contact with EBOLA, then quite possibly took it home to their husbands, wives and children.

This complication, like most others, could have been stopped by a physician following proper protocols.  This outbreak can be directly laid at the feet of a careless MD and they are being very careful NOT to release the name.

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## canid

Every medical professional in the entire world is at risk of contacting ebolavirus and any number of other infectious diseases at all times, and particularly so during any active international outbreak, full stop. You find me the medical professional who doesn't already know that and I'll recommend a change of career.

This is not to say I don't understand; I can't stand to see a potential and anticipatable crisis mismanaged either.

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## Rick

The article I read said he informed a nurse of his travels and he/she failed to report it. All it takes is one person too busy to not make the connection. As for hazmat suits, the CDC has been recommending to hospitals over the last month that they do NOT use them. Their position is the use of unfamiliar equipment stands a better chance of cross contamination and infection. Since ebola is not air borne the use of gown, gloves and surgical mask is sufficient. Here's an article in the Annals of Medicine that discusses precautions. 

"The CDC recommends placing patients with suspected or confirmed Ebola in a single-patient room and instituting contact and droplet precautions (1). These entail donning a fluid-impermeable gown, gloves, a surgical mask, and either goggles or a face shield. If the patient has “copious” secretions, the CDC also recommends shoe and leg coverings. If an aerosol-generating procedure is planned (such as intubation or bronchoscopy), the CDC recommends wearing an N95 mask and placing the patient in a negative-pressure room. Despite this guidance, many hospitals are planning to place all patients in negative-pressure rooms at all times, to compel all personnel to wear full-body hazardous material (HazMat) suits, and to require N95 masks or powered air-purifying respirators rather than surgical masks at all times.

Hospitals' decisions to maximize precautions are understandable given the horrific mortality of this disease and reports of ongoing transmission in African hospitals. Fears among U.S. providers are undoubtedly further spurred by the dramatic footage of ambulance workers in Madrid, Spain, and Atlanta, Georgia, wearing full-body HazMat suits and personal respirators to transport infected patients. However, these excessive measures are unwarranted...

...Exceeding these recommendations may paradoxically increase risk. Introducing new and unfamiliar forms of personal protective equipment could lead to self-contamination during removal of such gear. Requiring HazMat suits and respirators will probably decrease the frequency of provider–patient contacts, inhibit providers' ability to examine patients, and curtail the use of diagnostic tests. Patients without Ebola may also inadvertently be harmed because Ebola precautions will be required for all suspected cases even though malaria and other infections are more likely in patients from West Africa presenting with fever. Using extra gear inflates patients' and caregivers' anxiety levels, increases costs, and wastes valuable resources. More insidiously, requiring precautions that exceed the CDC's recommendations fans a culture of mistrust and cynicism about our nation's public health agency."

http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=1899515

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## Rick

Here's a quick checklist for supplies if anyone is interested. We have some folks on here that are new to planning so this is more for them. The list mentions an electrolyte replacement for dehydration as the result of vomiting or diarrhea. An easy one to make and remember is 1 quart of water, a handful of molasses or honey (Just make sure it's real honey not that store bought crap) and a pinch of salt. 

http://healthvermont.gov/panflu/docu...t-combined.pdf

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## Rick

Up to 80 people are now being watched in Texas. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29462431

And some responsible information: 

http://time.com/3451161/the-good-new...la-in-america/

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## crashdive123

The thing that concerns me the most is that we are just one mutation away from it becoming airborne.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-airborne.html

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## canid

That has always been the case, and not only for ebolavirus. One or a handful of mutations.

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## Rick

It it's any consolation, it has not mutated in ten years. Of course, that doesn't meant it can't or won't only that it hasn't. Infectious disease is given an R0 value (R naught). The higher the R0 the faster the disease will spread. Measles, for example, has an R0 of 17-18 meaning that if one person has measles they are likely to infect 17-18 other people and those individuals will each infect another 17-18 people and so on. The reason is measles is both transmitted by air and can be contracted before the host exhibits any symptoms. 

Ebola, on the other hand, has an R0 of 1-2. It's actually pretty hard to catch requiring direct contact with a patient that is showing symptoms AND you must come in contact with the patient's body fluids such as vomit, blood or other fluids. There is actually some pretty good literature being circulated on it at the moment.

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## crashdive123

Well, the opportunity certainly exists for spread from this patient.  http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014...his-apartment/

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## Rick

There's no doubt the medical team hosed the pooch on this one. I've tried to put myself in the nurse's shoes and think he made some passing comment of having been to Nigeria, the nurse being very busy and not really processing what he had just said and you tend to look for the most obvious solution instead of some far fetched thingy. Flu would have been a natural diagnosis given where he was and his symptoms. So I don't necessarily blame them for having missed him the first time around. Medical folks are just people and they are prone to mistakes just like the rest of us. Unfortunately, some mistakes in that profession lead to death. At this point, I'm pretty confident they'll get a handle on it. I hope I'm not making a mistake thinking that.

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## crashdive123

Listening to the radio this morning....

Apparently a "clean-up" team was hired to clean the place where he was staying.  After doing so, they came to the sudden realization (?) that they were not qualified nor equipped to remove the hazmat from the site so they left it.  I believe that people are well meaning in this, but need to realize their limitations.

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## Rick

They guys were apparently short a transport permit that the state issues. The article I read said they only do the cleaning but not the transporting. They found out the permit had not yet been issued so they delayed the clean up until it can be transported. 

"Brad Smith of the Cleaning Guys, which was hired to sanitize the apartment, said his company is ready to go but a permit issue has stopped them from entering the home. Smith says a specialized permit, which is handled by the state government, is needed to transport this type of unprecedented hazardous waste on Texas highways. Cleaning Guys specializes in hazmat and biohazard cleaning services, but it does not transport the materials.It's unclear how long it will take to get the proper permits.
"This is a unique situation," Smith said. "Once awarded, our hazmat teams will be allowed back inside to do their jobs."
Louise told CNN's Anderson Cooper that she used bleach to clean her apartment, "but it's not clear to me how systematic the cleaning was," Cooper said. "

http://www.kwch.com/news/health/clea...-home/28383914

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## crashdive123

Well, that's a little reassuring.

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## Rick

What's interesting to me is how little prepared we are even when we've handled some pretty serious past events. We are missing things left and right that should have been caught and handled on the front end. One could say live and learn but in this case you might not live to learn.

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## nell67

Patient admitted to Howard University Hospital in DC with Ebola-LIKE symptoms. better to be safe than sorry, This patient had visited Nigeria

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## canid

See, that's not so hard. Though it should be noted that Nigeria has not had active transmission of Ebola in a month.

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## Wildthang

Well you can call me a skeptic, but it almost seems like if you simply walk into the room of an ebola patient, you can get it. The nurse that just got it was trying to use the correct protocal, and still got it. I think this stuff can transfer from one to another much easier than they are willing to admit.
In a place like Dallas, it just one infected person goes to a couple of malls and touches a bunch of stuff, ebola could spread like wild fire!
They should close the borders and not let anybody fly that is from countries where people have widespread infections. And especially not let them fly here!
But they will lolligag around untill the US has widespread infections and we will all be living in a SHTF situation. I think this is already being grossly mishandled and the CDC is more worried about people panicking than really preventing wide spread infections.

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## Rick

I think we'll find the nurse became infected while removing the protective gown, mask and gloves. There is a specific CDC recommended procedure for disrobing after treating an ebola patient. Deviating from that protocol, even slightly, can result in infection. Even the CDC recognizes that fact and has said there will probably be additional medical staff infections. In addition, Mr. Duncan had some pretty advanced life support including intubation and kidney dialysis. Both procedures brought the nursing staff into close personal contact with saliva and blood. I don't know but one can assume he also had vomiting and/or diarrhea in the later stages since those are typical symptoms.  In addition, periodic blood samples were taken to monitor electrolyte levels. The CDC is now suggesting that blood samples only be taken once per day instead of the previously recommend several times per day. 

There was no issue with Duncan flying into the U.S. He was not contagious at the time. So closing the borders would be an unnecessary and economically staggering thing to do. The costs would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. It would probably bankrupt the airline industry alone. 

Science is science. You can't fake that. Ebola has an extremely low infection rate. Go back and read post 52. Literally thousands of independent health care professionals have been involved with Ebola all along. From places like Doctors Without Borders as well as other governmental agencies from other countries. China has had a military hospital in Africa for a couple of months. Far longer than the U.S. military. And remember, of the 80 folks being monitored that were in possible contact with Mr. Duncan none of them have tested positive. 

You would be better off being worrying about D68 and taking precautions from it than Ebola. Internationally, Ebola is a mere radar blip compared to malaria or seasonal flu.

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## BENESSE

Ebola is a virus and as such can mutate without giving the science and medical professionals heads up.
We've seen it over and over again in other viral diseases starting with the flu.

I am going to err on the side of extreme caution and general distrust on anything "they" have to say.

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## Rick

That's fine and your concern of mutation is accurate. Like any good, respectable virus it has mutated. Over and over. However, it has not changed the way it is transmitted in over a decade. And distrusting anything "they" have to say is also distrusting all the independent medical personnel that have been on the front lines for years. 

http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-vir...preads-1.15777

The only reason folks are up in arms over Ebola is because it makes great press. If D68 were receiving the same level of press Ebola has folks were be scared skitless. We had a family meeting yesterday and talked about D68 with relation to the grandkids. At the rate it is spreading it certain to be coming to a family near you soon. If it hasn't already. 

http://www.cdc.gov/non-polio-enterov...outbreaks.html

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## canid

> If D68 were receiving the same level of press Ebola has folks were be scared skitless


It's beginning to get a fair amount of attention. The apparent paralytic cases should strike a bit closer to home for those who remember or have learned much about poliomyelitis, particularly given the close relation of Enterivirus D68 and poliovirus species. Of course one should keep in mind that they are about as closely related to rhinovirus group, and the predominance of the disease does seem to be respiratory in nature but if I had children - or loved ones who were not immunocompetent - I would be legitimately concerned.

I'm also keeping my eye on the rising prevalence of West Nile Virus, which has become extremely common in my area and is emergent in many states recently.

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## BENESSE

> If D68 were receiving the same level of press Ebola has folks were be scared skitless. We had a family meeting yesterday and talked about D68 with relation to the grandkids. At the rate it is spreading it certain to be coming to a family near you soon. If it hasn't already. 
> 
> http://www.cdc.gov/non-polio-enterov...outbreaks.html


Oh, _believe_ me, I am just as concerned about D68 and we have a building full of kids. And crowds the minute we step outside.

As far as trusting or distrusting all the independent medical personnel that have been on the front lines for years: what I really distrust is the disemination of information to the general public. Not necessarily lying, but not telling the entire truth for fear of igniting panic. So...unless one has the time to study it all as though it was for a dissertation (I don't) the only thing to do is be super-duper cautious and read between the lines when common sense dictates.

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## LowKey

Our governor has been giving speeches that "it's highly unlikely that ebola will ever come to MA." There was a scare yesterday and they still have not confirmed the patient in Boston does not have ebola (not showing ALL the CDC symptoms.) But it's that simple, Governor. All someone has to do is get off the plane at Logan INTERNATIONAL airport and stay a week or two. It doesn't matter that there are no direct flights to Africa. Those things called "connections" ring a bell? http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opi...m_dubai_flight

Anyway, I'm not particularly fearful of this ebola. Just cautious. Always.
Now a flu that knocks me on my butt for a week. That is far more likely and would suck.

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## Rick

In fact, Mr. Dunkin did a connecting flight through Brussels to Washington to Dallas. Could just as easily have been Brussels to Washington to Boston.

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## Ken

Texas health officials say second healthcare worker at Dallas hospital tests positive for Ebola.


http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/1...ospital-tests/

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## canid

I just saw that. That's terrible.

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## Wildthang

> I just saw that. That's terrible.


Yep there it goes, another case nobody knew about that has been running around in public, and is infected. That virus can actually survive on a dry surface I think for 4 hours. So the nurse wipes her mouth or nose, goes to the mall, touches door handles, clothes hangers, hand rails, elevator buttons, any number of things can get touched!
Then little kids in the mall touch the same things and are always putting their fingers in their mouths. Now I am not a viral expert, but mathematically there are huge odds that this disease can spread like wildfire. All it is going to take is one infected contageous person to be out in public for a few days and it is going to explode!
If this stuff is so hard to get, then why have 2 nurses got it so far when they were fully gowned up. What chance does a normal person in a public environment have if they touch surfaces where an infected person has been, not much in my opinion.
I still think that stuff is far more contageous than they are saying!

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## canid

I don't think you understand ebola.

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## Rick

Okey Dokey. You're probably right. We're all gonna die. Go back and read post 62. The CDC was very up front in saying they expected additional health care workers to test positive. 

It isn't even spreading like wildfire in Africa where people take patients back home to self treat then wash the bodies after they die. It's tough to catch it. It has an infection rate of R1-2. You have to come in direct contact with an infected person's body fluids. The virus can only live outside the body in body fluids that have dried (several hours) or in liquid body fluids (several days). I doubt any nurse is going to walk around with fluids on themselves and let them dry in place or stay wet for days.

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## BENESSE

From the Federation of American Scientists:



> *Delivery:*  Person-to-person transmission requires close contact with an infected  individual *or items used by an infected individual*. Ebola could be  intentionally transmitted by an infected individual. Currently, it is  not possible to aerosolize Ebola in dry form. The possibility of  transmission via aerosolized liquid droplets (such as produced by  sneezing) is speculated but unconfirmed.


http://fas.org/programs/ssp/bio/fact...factsheet.html

WebMD:



> Other ways to get Ebola include touching *contaminated* needles or *surfaces.*


http://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/e...irus-infection

CNN:



> some  of the nation's top infectious disease experts worry that this deadly*  virus could mutate and be transmitted just by a cough or a sneeze*.





> Ebola  is an RNA virus, which means every time it copies itself, it makes one  or two mutations. *Many of those mutations mean nothing, but some of them  might be able to change the way the virus behaves inside the human  body.* (snip)
> 
> Dr.  James Le Duc, the director of the Galveston National Laboratory at the  University of Texas, said *the problem is that no one is keeping track of  the mutations happening across West Africa, so no one really knows what  the virus has become*. (snip)


http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/12/health/ebola-airborne/index.html

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## BENESSE

This from the chief of UN Ebola Mission:




> *There  is a nightmare chance that the Ebola virus could become airborne if  the epidemic is not brought under control fast enough*, the chief of the  UNs Ebola mission has warned.
> 
> Anthony  Banbury, the Secretary Generals Special Representative, said that aid  workers are racing against time to bring the epidemic under control, *in  case the Ebola virus mutates and becomes even harder to deal with.
> *
> The  longer it moves around in human hosts in the virulent melting pot that  is West Africa, the more chances increase that it could mutate, he told  the Telegraph. *It is a nightmare scenario [that it could become  airborne], and unlikely, but it cant be ruled out.*


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...to-the-US.html

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## finallyME

> I don't think you understand ebola.


I don't think anyone really understands ebola.

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## Rick

Okay. I give. Ya'll can worry yourself silly over it. If you want to worry about maybes, might bes, could bes, and not about what's actually happening today go ahead. Yeah, it could become transmissible person to person but it's not. An asteroid could drop a ton of gold in my back yard but I don't think that's likely either.

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## BENESSE

> Okay. I give. Ya'll can worry yourself silly over it. If you want to worry about maybes, might bes, could bes, and not about what's actually happening today go ahead. Yeah, it could become transmissible person to person but it's not. *An asteroid could drop a ton of gold in my back yard but I don't think that's likely either.*


Well, I already feel better now that you put it in the right context for me.  :Smartass: 
Who knew...?!

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## kyratshooter

Right now my greatest concern is that last month Ebola was 5,000 miles away, last week Ebola was 950 miles from my home, and this week it has been brought to within 250 miles of the house.

At that rate within two more weeks I will not be answering the door when the bell rings.

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## Rick

My point is you are worried about something that _might_ happen. HIV could become airborne but it hasn't. A whole lot more folks are infected with that than Ebola and no one is worried that HIV will mutate. Now THAT would be a disaster of epic proportions. All I'm trying to do is post current information and suggest that there are other more dangerous diseases that we should be preparing for (D68).

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## kyratshooter

OK Rick, what other diseases do we have available for our enjoyment that are 99% fatal?

I really think you are overdoing the panic avoidance and "there are other things much worse" thing on this one.

It is the old good news bad news thing on this subject, only there is no "good news".  

Here's the good news, you don't have Marburg or AIDS, the bad news is you have Ebola.

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## Rick

Eh, gives me something to do.

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## LowKey

The woman got on a plane from Cleveland to TX knowing she had a 99° fever. The next day she's diagnosed. Kinda like the news reporter doctor that decided to skip out on her quarantine after traveling with an infected cameraman. "Sorry," she says.

This is how Boston thinks they are controlling Ebola (this is from the Boston Herald.)
Read the caption.
Do you think this guy is properly protected? Turns out the patient didn't have Ebola but what if he did?
Screen-Shot.jpg

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## canid

Those are all reasonable considerations in that they are technically possible. It's also technically possible to be struck by a meteorite while cashing in a winning lottery ticket.

The ebolavirus viron is incredibly fragile, to oxidizers such as bleach and peroxides, to destructive dehydration by alcohols,  to UV and probably a very high number of other EM spectra, and even to relatively mild heat. This makes it very difficult for it to survive in basically any but opaque and damp suspensions, such as fresh blood, wastes/effluence from an infected person or their corpses. The viral load of an infected person is not particularly high until the person is life threateningly ill. It is not a guarantee against transmission, but it is a statistical phenomenon which is coroberated by the observed modes of transmission in documented outbreaks, where those infected have almost universally been intimate caregivers, either of the living victims or the deceased.

I'm not going to even touch the issue of airborne transmission further unless it should actually occur. It's had a very, very long chain of opportunity to do so, as have so many other viral diseases for which this worry is often expressed and while it could happen, It's pointless to speculate about.

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## crashdive123

Worrying about things that might happen is why we prepare.  A hurricane might hit my location directly, so I prepare.  A whole host of things might happen that cause me to have a BOB.  The problem with the EBOLA scare is conflicting information.  It is relatively easy to weed out the "out there" stuff regarding this horrible disease, but even information that we are "supposed" to be able to trust is difficult to follow at best and down right BS at worst.  Here's an example from the CDC director.  


> Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said during a telephone press briefing Wednesday that you cannot get Ebola by sitting next to someone on a bus, but that infected or exposed persons should not ride public transportation because they could transmit the disease to someone else.


  Here are the actual responses he gave to a question....  


> I think there are two different parts of that equation, he continued. The first is, if youre a member of the traveling public and are healthy, should you be worried that you might have gotten it by sitting next to someone? And the answer is no.
> 
> Second, if you are sick and you may have Ebola, should you get on a bus? And the answer to that is also no. You might become ill, you might have a problem that exposes someone around you, he said.


  So what are we to believe?

Like all things preparedness - prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Make smart decisions.  Be aware of your surroundings.  Stay informed.

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## BENESSE

> Like all things preparedness - *prepare for the worst and hope for the best*.  Make smart decisions.  Be aware of your surroundings.  Stay informed.


That's what it is all about. No more, no less.
Can't imagine why anyone would have a problem with it, _here_ of all places.

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## hayshaker

to those in rural areas, just a thought many times in rural areas the local sports team will go to the big city
when they have sorts events, wrestling,basketball,volleyball, ect.... plenty chances there to bring something back.
then on sunday go to church.
most people in rural areas drive to larger towns 12,000 to 30,000 say to do the weekly shopping.

where im at many of these towns are fullup with illeagals from mexico and central america they work
in the food industry ya gotta love it. proccessing turkyies , the hog plants and so on. then theres the somalies
the hmoungs all of which the luthren churches brought over. you shop at wallmart so do they. i see
these people in wally world all the time coughing all over and what notnot dont cover thier faces . so that said are we really so 
safe in the rural areas after all. something to think about. that,s all

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## Wildthang

The nurses in Texas more than likely only got the body liquids on their skin, and got the darn stuff! Again, peoples hands come in contact with their eyes, mouth, and noses all the time, and out in public deposit those germs on surfaces. Their is a huge mathematical possibility that it can spread.
And by the way it is far more likely than getting hit by a meteor a frappin volcano. The stuff is here, and our government does not keep us informed good enough to make sound decisions in my opinion. And it is spreading here, slowly for now but spreading.
And 1000's of new people flying in everyday. We here a WSF are probably better preapared than most, but how many million aren't?
I'm just saying that there are a lot of people trying to make us beleive that this stuff is hard to catch and I don't believe that for a minute. There are a couple of people here that need to volunteer for ebola duty to prove it is hard to contract!

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## LowKey

The family of the guy who died in Dallas haven't come down with it, even after being shut in an apartment with contaminated bedding. But the nurses did.
The Dallas judge that rode with the family to a new quarantine site hasn't come down with it.

In my own opinion, what they should be setting up is remote reporting places so if someone is concerned they may have ebola, they go there instead of to the nearest emergency room. These can even be set up in some emergency rooms. It would be good if certain hospitals, not all hospitals, were designated as ebola treatment centers. Get the minimum up and running, with proper isolatioin units and trained staff before it becomes a serious issue. And if Ebola isn't the plague, there's always the next disease to come along. 

Because the other part of this is the cost. Not only is a single ebola patient a drain on resources, if the public cannot be made to feel safe, they will avoid any hospital or other health care facility where a person with ebola has shown up. Hospital/clinic cost margins in the US depend on a steady stream of patients. Disrupt that for any reason and you may see faltering facilities and more needed government support. We could all end up paying for this in some way no matter what.

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## Rick

> There are a couple of people here that need to volunteer for ebola duty to prove it is hard to contract!


I'll take that as a finger point at me. If I had the skills I wouldn't hesitate to treat someone with an infectious disease in a controlled environment. Sadly, the two nurses treated Mr. Duncan in the ER before appropriate protocols were put in place. No doubt, that's when they contracted it. As for cost, you already are paying for it through taxes and have been for years. We fund the CDC. Here are some timely, unbiased articles. Enjoy. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...tic-contagion/ ...........space............. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...k-qa.html?_r=0

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## Rick

I'm dealing with some access problems at the moment and I've logged in through an anonymous server. Unfortunately, it doesn't handle line breaks appropriately. That's why the above post looks the way it does.

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## canid

That is a very fine suggestion Wildthang, but gust for kicks I'm going to try not rearranging my entire life to prove a point to a stranger on the internet.

To all: I'm not saying not to be concerned or prepared, just don't burn yourselves out first worrying over the least likely scenarios. Especially not until you have the initial bases covered. Worry, like material resources are generally renewable but finite.

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## Rick

If anyone cares to look at the New York Times link you'll see that 17 people have been treated in the West. I don't know how many health care workers that equates to but it has to be hundreds. I've seen reports that 70 health care workers were involved in Mr. Duncan's care in Dallas. Of those hundreds only three health care workers have been infected. Two nurses in Dallas and one nurse in Spain. Three other hospitals in the U.S. have treated Ebola patients and no one has tested positive in any of those hospitals. And those are folks performing invasive procedures such as intubation, dialysis, blood draws and cleaning up feces and vomit. That's a pretty low infection rate. I'm firmly on Canid's side. Paranoia doesn't help. Plan for infectious disease just as you would plan for any other event. Read objective articles and try to glean the facts as best you can. There have been conflicting statements and changing guidelines and protocols. This is a first time event for the U.S. medical community and, sadly, they are learning as they go.

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## Wildthang

I am not going to worry myself terribly over this issue, I just do not worry about things out of my control, and will react accordingly if it gets close to me and my family. It just seems to me to be more infectious than they are reporting. I honestly hope it dies out and goes away before reaching pandemic proportions!
I also do not beleive that our medical workers and hospitals are even remotely ready if it does go widespread! BUt I feel better now and will no longer worry about any of this until Canid and Rick tell me to get worried :Smartass:

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## canid

I hope so too, and I'm sorry to have been gruff. Please don't get me wrong on this point either; I'm sorta worried. For now though it's just that my worry is reserved mostly for those in the epidemic areas and those likely to face growing streams of refugees with no way to stop or screen them. Could you imagine the amount and manner of stuff that would hit the fan if this epidemic spread in some large scale to the more volatile and under-resourced areas in the Med?

For my part; sure, I bought some extra bleach last month and so forth, but I haven't started making face shields or aprons just yet.

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## Wildthang

Canid I can handle gruff, no problem buddy. But I have recently read articles from nurses and healthcare workers that state the only training they get for ebola decon was an e-mail. And most of them will tell you that their hospitals and nurses are nowhere near ready for an ebola epidemic, and they do not have the proper PPE to deal with it right now!
I hope the medical world gets these people ready and well equipped soon because if something like ebola comes areound that spreads airborne, we are all in deep poo!

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## canid

I hope so too,  in terms of treatment in particular, which would indeed be a drain in any widespread outbreak, and would be rendered by caregivers with mostly having only academic understanding of tropical hemorrhagic fevers which might effect patient outcome.

Safety protocols exist, can still be taught and reviewed, but more importantly can be readily derived from more general existing ones. There's nothing much to it for example that isn't covered by Universal Precautions, and for now we can draw from, though should never be foolish enough to rely entirely on exposure history through contact tracing and travel history. In the texas outbreak, these later were not applied, and the precautions misapplied.

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## LowKey

I don't mind funding the CDC (at least up to the point where they study "gun violence" as a "disease"). 
I do mind funding corporate bailouts.

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## crashdive123

Guests can not see images in the messages. Please register in the forum.

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## canid

That's perfect right there.

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## canid

Well, it can be seen as good news that Senegal and Nigeria's outbreaks are over and ours appears to be nearly so. Now all we have to do is hope the lesson is learned and that we won't get any new infections in ours and that everybody can avoid any new outbreaks cropping up and that the general public in the still epidemic countries have begun taking this more seriously that they were a few months ago. It really got so out of hand because of the number of people who didn't understand it, didn't want to understand it and did not believe it was real.

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## LowKey

New case of Ebola in NYC.
A second person held on arrival under new quarantine rules in NY and NJ has been cleared.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/ny...g-spencer.html

This is going to continue happening until it is eradicated at its source.

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## canid

It won't be 'eradicated at it's source', but it will continue happening until this epidemic is over, yes.

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## hunter63

What or who was "The source"?

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## canid

An indeternimate number of mammal species in tropical/semitropical africa, but presumably mostly bats and monkeys. Nobody will be eradicating them any time soon.

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## Rick

Nor would we want to. Bats are prodigious insect eaters and plant pollinators. Attempting to eradicate them would invariably mean greater contact with man, which would increase the likelihood of infection IF they are the only source. Africa, like the rest of the world, is destroying important habitat forcing closer contact between wild animals and mankind. I saw a report earlier this week on chimpanzees staging night time raids on farms because they had discovered how easy it is to acquire food and because their forest homes are being destroyed to create those farms. That loss of habitat means bats are starting to choose homes and buildings as nesting sites. This is a situation that will only get worse as more and more lands are cleared if the remaining wild lands are not protected.

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